The Dollar Index (DXY00) rose by +0.11% on Friday. The dollar posted a modest gain amid hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index for April was unexpectedly revised upward by +1.4 points to 52.2 from the previously reported 50.8, surpassing expectations of 50.5.

However, the University of Michigan’s April Inflation Expectations Index was revised down to +6.5% from the previously reported +6.7%, weaker than expectations for a rise to +6.8%.

Key Product News:

Metals

June gold futures (GCM25) closed down by $50.20 (-1.50%), while May silver futures (SIK25) also fell by $0.493 (-1.47%). The prices of both precious metals declined on Friday due to the strengthening U.S. dollar. Additionally, higher-than-expected April CPI data from Japan could prompt the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to continue raising interest rates, negatively impacting precious metals prices.

Expectations of reduced tensions in the U.S.-China trade war also led to long liquidation in precious metals on Friday. This followed a Bloomberg report indicating that the Chinese government is considering suspending a 125% tariff on certain U.S. imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals such as ethane.

Lower U.S. Treasury yields helped provide some support for precious metals prices. Furthermore, dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who noted that “risks to economic growth are increasing,” added to the bullish sentiment for gold. Additionally, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, with ongoing conflicts between Israel-Hamas and U.S.-Houthi forces, continues to fuel safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Energy

Global oil prices resumed a downward trend last week, despite stronger signs of favorable trade agreements between major economies.

By the end of the week, Brent crude prices had fallen by 1.6% to $66.87 per barrel, while WTI crude also declined by 1.55% to $63.02 per barrel.

In early-week trading, both benchmarks dropped about 2.5%, impacted by complex negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Italy. Although earlier discussions in Oman had shown positive signals, new U.S. sanctions on Iran’s major energy sector triggered a recovery in oil prices by approximately 1.8-1.9% on April 22.

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USD exchange rate today 09/04/2025

At the time of survey at 4:00 a.m. on April 9, the central rate at the State Bank was 24,898 VND/USD, up 12 VND compared to yesterday’s trading session.

Specifically, at Vietcombank, the USD exchange rate was 25,750 – 26,140 VND/USD, up 180 VND in both buying and selling compared to yesterday’s trading session.

NCB Bank is buying USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,295 VND

NCB Bank is buying USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,345 VND

Sacombank is buying USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,860 VND

VietinBank is buying USD transfers at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,984 VND

OCB Bank is selling USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,700 VND

OCB Bank is selling USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,720 VND

Hong Leong Bank, Kien Long, Nam A, Techcombank, TPB, VietABank, VPBank are selling USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 26,142 VND

ABBank is selling USD transfers at The highest price is: 1 USD = 26,150 VND

USD exchange rate today, April 9, 2025 on the world market

The Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the USD against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), stopped at 103.29 – up 0.18 points compared to April 8, 2025.

The gains in both the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc showed steady demand for safe-haven assets as investors remain concerned about the possibility of a global recession, Reuters reported. Exchange rates have been volatile in recent days as investors tried to determine which currency offered safety amid the market sell-off, and which economies could be hit hardest.

The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0936, down from a gain of more than 0.7% earlier in the day, after falling for two straight days.

Currencies that tend to rise when stock markets rise also recovered, with the pound up 0.3% and the Australian dollar up 1% after both fell in the previous two sessions.

“Sentiment is picking up, perhaps on the view that Trump could focus on China and accelerate trade deals elsewhere,” said Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING. “However, the market may be over-optimistic.”

Investors have gleaned some positive signs from the Trump administration on the tariff talks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing hope that the talks will result in a reduction in tariffs.

Trump said Japan was sending a team to start talks, which helped Japanese stocks rise overnight.

The dollar fell 0.6% against the Japanese yen, traditionally a safe haven in times of market stress, to 146.95 yen per dollar, after hitting a six-month low against the yen. The dollar also fell 0.7% against the Swiss franc. That pushed the dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, down 0.3% to 103.12.

The index has fallen about 0.7% since Trump announced the tariffs on April 2, as investors weighed the negative impact on the U.S. economy against the dollar’s ​​traditional role as a hedge against market declines.

“The current volatility is entirely a result of the Trump administration’s policy decisions, which means that if reversed, the impact on financial markets is likely to be reversed,” said Nathan Lim, chief investment officer at Lonsec Investment Solutions.

China’s yuan fell to its lowest level since 2023 after the central bank eased its grip on the currency, in what analysts said was an attempt to counter the hit to exports from the tariffs.

The move “has fueled speculation among market participants that China may allow the yuan to depreciate further to offset the negative impact of the worsening trade war,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

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According to The Hill, the reciprocal tax rate that Mr. Trump will impose on a series of America’s largest trading partners, including China, will be 34%; Japan will be 24%; India will be 26%; Switzerland will be 21%; Indonesia will be 32%; Malaysia will be 24%; Cambodia will be 49%. As for the European Union, the reciprocal tax rate that Washington will impose on this bloc is 20%.

The White House in a statement released on the afternoon of April 2 (Washington DC time) affirmed that Mexico and Canada will not be subject to new reciprocal tariffs.

The three countries subject to the highest reciprocal tariffs are Cambodia, Laos and Madagascar. Vietnam – the 8th largest trading partner of the US – is also subject to a tariff of up to 46%. The general tariff of 10% will be applied from April 5, while the reciprocal tariffs will take effect from April 9.

In addition, the US will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars from April 3. With the above tax imposition, President Trump hopes to collect 6 trillion USD for the American people.

“April 2, 2025, will be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America regained its fortune, and the day we made America wealthy again. This is one of the most important days in American history,” President Trump said.

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Reasons for the Surge in Tokyo Rice Prices

The sharp rise in Tokyo rice prices in March 2025 can be explained by four main reasons:

First, poor harvests due to adverse weather conditions: One of the main reasons for the rice shortage is climate change. In the summer of 2023, Japan experienced record high temperatures, with the average temperature from June to August being about 1.76°C higher than the average from 1991-2000. This has led to a decrease in rice yields in major rice-growing areas such as Niigata and Akita, with a serious reduction in rice quality.

Specifically, in Niigata Prefecture, only 5% of Koshihikari rice production reached first-class quality in 2023, a sharp decrease from 80% the previous year. In addition, farmers in Kamimomi Village said that the unusually high temperatures have reduced the moisture content of rice grains, causing them to become smaller and thinner, affecting their quality.

These changes not only affect productivity, leading to reduced supply and higher prices in the market, but also lead to a decrease in rice quality. In response, the Japanese government has stockpiled rice and encouraged farmers to switch to growing heat-resistant rice varieties to cope with climate change.

Second, increased demand from tourism: The strong recovery of the tourism industry after the COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the number of foreign tourists to Japan, increasing demand for rice at restaurants and food service establishments. After Japan completely lifted entry restrictions, the tourism industry has recovered strongly.

The number of international visitors to the Japanese market in March 2024 exceeded 3 million, and total tourist spending in the period from January to March also reached a record high. Specifically, in August 2023, Japan welcomed about 2.16 million foreign visitors, reaching 85.6% compared to the same period in 2019 before the pandemic.

Third, hoarding and speculation in the supply chain: A factor that cannot be ignored is speculation in the rice supply chain. Distributors and retailers have been holding back goods in anticipation of higher prices. This has led to an artificial shortage, increasing rice prices, even though rice production has not decreased significantly. This speculation has made the shortage even more serious.

Fourth, the policy of reducing arable land: According to the Mainichi Shimbun (Japan), Mr. Kazuhito Yamashita, a former official at Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and a research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, the underlying reason for the rice shortage is the policy of reducing arable land, which reduces the amount of land dedicated to cultivation.   

Under the arable land reduction policy, rice production is cut to increase market prices, and the government subsidizes rice farmers to switch to other crops such as wheat or soybeans. This policy has been in place for over 50 years, originating from the “Just in Time” culture that contributed to the success of Toyota and the Japanese automotive industry.

Impact on CPI and Inflation in Japan

The sharp rise in rice prices has significantly contributed to the increase in core CPI in Tokyo. Specifically, the core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose by 2.4% in March 2025 compared to the same period last year, exceeding the market’s average forecast of 2.2%. This increase is mainly due to the surge in food prices, particularly rice. This poses a challenge for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in maintaining an appropriate monetary policy to control inflation and support economic growth.

According to Reuters, one of the world’s largest and most reputable international news agencies, the cost of rice, a staple food in Japan, increased by 92.4% in March, the largest increase since 1976, signaling the pain that households are experiencing from rising living costs.

Inflation in the service sector rose to 0.8% in March, from 0.6% in February, partly due to a 1.1% increase in rental prices, the highest annual increase since 1994.

The Bank of Japan ended its decade-long aggressive stimulus program last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, with the view that Japan is on the verge of sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if wage increases continue to support consumption and allow companies to raise prices, thereby maintaining stable inflation around the 2% target.

Lessons Learned for Vietnam

As rice prices in Tokyo skyrocket, a series of serious food security and economic consequences have emerged, not only in Japan but also showing potential vulnerabilities in global food supply chains. This scenario is a wake-up call not only for developed economies like Japan but also for major rice-producing countries like Vietnam. Lessons from Tokyo can be applied in practice to ensure stability in the food market and avoid “rice hunger” in the future.

First, strengthen climate risk forecasting and management: Climate change is a major factor leading to rice shortages in Japan, and Vietnam cannot stand aside in the face of this challenge. Especially in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s main rice-growing area, saline intrusion, drought and extreme weather events are becoming more common.

Therefore, Vietnam needs to invest in an accurate and timely weather forecasting system to provide information to farmers, helping them to proactively respond to unusual conditions. At the same time, the development of drought-, salinity- and pest-resistant rice varieties needs to be promoted to minimize the impact of climate change and protect domestic rice supplies.

Second, building and effectively managing national food reserves: The lesson from Japan is that rice shortages come not only from reduced production but also from a lack of national food reserves.

To avoid this situation, Vietnam needs to build and maintain an effective national rice reserve system, ensuring that there is no shortage of rice in emergency situations. The government needs to have a transparent strategy for replenishing and releasing reserves to stabilize rice prices, avoiding speculation and artificial scarcity. In addition, it is necessary to develop a flexible distribution system that can adjust supply promptly when the market fluctuates greatly.

Third, control speculation and price manipulation in the supply chain: An important factor causing the sharp increase in rice prices in Japan is speculation in the supply chain, leading to artificial scarcity.

Vietnam needs to strengthen supervision and inspection of rice trading activities to prevent speculation and hoarding of rice to manipulate prices. Authorities must implement strict measures to ensure that the rice market operates transparently and fairly, helping consumers and farmers not suffer losses from unhealthy practices.

Fourth, diversify export markets and develop processed rice products: Vietnam is one of the world’s largest rice exporters, but still depends heavily on raw rice exports. This makes the Vietnamese rice market vulnerable to global price fluctuations.

To minimize this risk, Vietnam needs to diversify its rice export markets and develop processed rice products such as vermicelli, pho, rice cakes and other products. This will not only increase export value but also help reduce dependence on raw rice prices, creating a sustainable value chain for the rice industry.

Fifth, improve production capacity and product quality: To maintain stability and sustainable development for the rice industry, Vietnam needs to invest in advanced production technology, improve cultivation and post-harvest processes to increase productivity and product quality.

By applying new technologies in cultivation, such as using smart fertilizers, water-saving irrigation and environmental protection, Vietnam can minimize the impact of climate change while improving the quality of exported rice. Improving quality not only helps increase product value but also strengthens the position of Vietnamese rice in the international market.

Source: Industry and Trade Newspaper

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The Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the USD against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), stopped at 104.18 – up 0.14 points compared to March 31, 2025.

According to data from Clarus, a company of the ION group specializing in derivatives research, EUR/USD options trading volume in the over-the-counter (OTC) market increased by 104% in January, to 852 billion USD compared to the same period in 2024.

Complex strategies such as digital options and barrier options — contracts that become effective only when a currency hits a certain price threshold — more than doubled in the euro to $26 billion in January. In the Canadian dollar, that number jumped more than 2,000% to $7.3 billion, according to Clarus data.

At derivatives exchange CME Group, trading volume is up 76% from a year ago, with an average of $7 billion in notional value traded electronically each day. CME also recorded a record open interest in foreign-exchange options, topping 1.2 million contracts on March 5.

Meanwhile, expectations for foreign-exchange volatility come after volatility measures have declined since January, partly due to profit-taking and because tariffs have so far not had the impact that markets feared. Volatility indices had already spiked following Donald Trump’s victory in the US election last year.

A measure of short-term volatility for the euro has fallen from a near two-year high set in January, according to LSEG data, creating an attractive entry point for investors looking to hedge risk.

The drop in volatility has significantly reduced the cost investors need to pay to open new options positions, whether to hedge their portfolios or to speculate on specific scenarios.

According to LSEG data, three-month EUR/USD options, at-the-money, are now worth 16% less than they would have paid when Trump took office. Similarly, three-month USD/CAD options are down 17% in value.

With the extent of tariffs still unclear, investors see potential risks ahead, making the recent decline in FX options a positive.

“A lot of market participants still see a lot of risk from unexpected events, which is understandable in the current political environment,” Vassallo said, referring to risks that could trigger major market volatility.

The greenback fell as traders weighed the tough tariffs that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce this week.

USD exchange rate today 01/04/2025

At the time of survey at 4:00 a.m. on April 1, the central exchange rate at the State Bank was 24,837 VND/USD, down 6 VND compared to yesterday’s trading session.

Specifically, at Vietcombank, the USD exchange rate was 25,350 – 25,740 VND/USD, down 20 VND in both directions, compared to yesterday’s trading session.

VietBank is buying USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 23,630 VND

VietBank is buying USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 23,630 VND

PVcomBank is buying USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,505 VND

VietinBank is buying USD transfers at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,723 VND

ABBank is selling USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,680 VND

VietBank is selling USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,600 VND

PVcomBank is selling USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 26,075 VND

LPBank, OceanBank are selling USD transfers at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,900 VND

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Faced with risks related to tariffs, the Fed’s interest rate adjustment roadmap and slowing economic growth, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its reference interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% – the level it has maintained since December. The market also predicted that there was almost no possibility that the US central bank would cut interest rates at this meeting.

In addition to the rate decision, Fed officials updated their forecasts for interest rates and the economy this year and through 2027. The Fed also adjusted the pace of its bond-buying reductions.

Despite the impact of tariffs and fiscal policy on tax cuts and deregulation, officials said they still expect a half-point rate cut by the end of the year. That would put the Fed on track for two cuts this year.

In a statement after the meeting, the monetary policy-making body said the current environment was uncertain. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook have increased,” the FOMC said. “The Committee is mindful of these risks to its dual mandate.”

The Fed pursues a dual goal of maintaining a strong labor market and controlling inflation.

At its meeting, the FOMC lowered its outlook for economic growth and forecast higher inflation. Officials estimated the US economy would grow at a rate of just 1.7% this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the forecast in December. On the inflation front, the core CPI is expected to rise 2.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous estimate.

According to the dot plot chart tracking officials’ interest rate expectations, the Fed’s stance has become somewhat more hawkish since December. At the previous meeting, only one FOMC member said that interest rates would not change in 2025, while now there are 4.

The chart shows that officials’ interest rate projections have remained unchanged from December to the following years, with the possibility of making 2 cuts in 2026 and 1 in 2027 to stabilize long-term interest rates at around 3%.

The Fed also said it would continue to scale back its “quantitative tightening” program, gradually reducing the amount of bonds it holds on its balance sheet. The central bank will now allow only $5 billion in government bonds to mature without reinvesting, down from $25 billion previously. However, the Fed kept the $35 billion cap on mortgage-backed securities unchanged.

The Fed’s decision comes after the US stock market was rocked by Washington’s continued tariffs on global trading partners. The uncertainty is also weakening consumer confidence. Retail spending rose in February, albeit less than expected, but key indicators still show that US consumers are weathering the geopolitical storm.

Some cracks have appeared in the labour market. Nonfarm payrolls rose more slowly than estimated in February and a measure of unemployment – ​​which includes the group of disengaged and unproductive workers – rose 0.5% in February to its highest level since October 2021.

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Hot-rolled steel (HRC) will have many fluctuations in 2025. On February 21, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued a decision to temporarily impose anti-dumping tax (CBPG) on HRC steel from China at a tax rate of about 19% – 28%.

Accordingly, anti-dumping tax (CBPG) is considered a decisive factor in regaining market share of domestic enterprises in the context of fierce competition in the domestic market.
In 2024, imported hot-rolled steel (HRC) accounts for about 67% of domestic consumption, of which 75% comes from China. Steel demand in China is at its weakest level in the past five years, leading to domestic enterprises increasing exports to maintain production.

Therefore, HRC steel import output increased by 35% over the same period last year to reach 10.1 million tons, while output from domestic enterprises was about 4.8 million tons (down 3% over the same period last year).

Steel imports to Vietnam have increased sharply in the context of a high price gap between Vietnam and China.

The gap in 2024 has increased to 110 USD/ton (up 30% year-on-year), so Vietnamese galvanized steel manufacturers prefer to use Chinese steel instead of domestic hot-rolled steel (HRC).

Due to the strong increase in supply, HRC prices in the year decreased by about 11% year-on-year to 530 USD/ton.

With the tax rate for most Chinese enterprises at 28%, MBS forecasts that the gap between Vietnamese and Chinese steel may decrease to 45 – 50 USD/ton (excluding costs such as transportation and storage).

With the new gap, galvanized steel manufacturers can use domestic hot-rolled steel (HRC) instead of imports due to the advantages of transportation costs and delivery time. Thanks to that, MBS estimates that the domestic HRC market share could increase to 60% in the 2025-2026 period (compared to about 32% in 2024).

In addition, the demand for hot-rolled steel (HRC) is forecast to grow by 10% year-on-year in the 2025-2026 period to 16.3-17.9 million tons, driven by consumption of galvanized steel as well as other manufacturing industries such as automobile manufacturing. In addition, demand is expected to grow strongly after 2026 thanks to transportation projects such as the North-South high-speed railway.

With two key factors from the cooling pressure on Chinese steel prices and strong growth in demand, domestic HRC steel prices are forecast by MBS to recover from the second quarter of 2025 and reach 590/634 USD/ton (up 8%/9% year-on-year).

Hoa Phat (HPG) currently accounts for about 33% of total HRC consumption in 2024. The Dung Quat 2 factory of this group will start producing from the end of the first quarter of 2025.

MBS forecasts that the company’s HRC selling price and output in 2025 will grow by 8% and 47% respectively compared to the same period last year thanks to the contribution from Dung Quat 2 with about 1.4 million tons. Moreover, the time of anti-dumping tax application coincides with the completion time of Dung Quat 2 factory, which can have a positive impact on output in the long term by reducing competitive pressure from Chinese steel.

MBS forecasts that the factory will operate at 100% capacity in 2028 and contribute about 5.6 million tons, contributing to HRC output reaching 8.6 million tons (an increase of 187% compared to 2024).

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Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said oil prices fell slightly on Thursday due to increased US reserves.
Oil prices today 21/2/2025: Oil prices were almost unchanged on Thursday after rising to a nearly one-week high in the previous session.

Oil prices today 21/2/2025

Recorded on Oilprice at 4:00 a.m. on February 21, 2025 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price was at 72.66 USD/barrel, up 0.57% (equivalent to an increase of 0.41 USD/barrel).

WTI oil price on the world market in the early morning of February 21, 2025 (Vietnam time)

Similarly, Brent oil price is at 76.52 USD/barrel, up 0.62% (equivalent to an increase of 0.47 USD/barrel).

Brent oil price on the world market in the early morning of February 21, 2025 (Vietnam time)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after rising to their highest in nearly a week in the previous session, as an industry report showing a rise in U.S. crude inventories weighed on the market.

Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.38 a barrel by 1407 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $72.51.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.34 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Wednesday.

Oil prices eased slightly on Thursday due to the rise in U.S. inventories, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. “The market remains directionless as supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and delays in OPEC+ production increases are offset by concerns about global demand,” Hansen said.

Official oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released on Thursday. Separately, Russia said oil flows from the Caspian Pipeline Alliance, a key route for exporting crude from Kazakhstan, fell by 30%-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station.

A 30% cut would be equivalent to removing 380,000 barrels per day from the market, according to Reuters calculations. However, other factors and the possibility of increased oil supply also added to price concerns.

Analysts at ING said in a note that the possibility of restarting oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region was offsetting the supply risk.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s energy minister told Reuters that as of Thursday, the country had not received confirmation from Iraq about the resumption of operations.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, said: “It is natural to be concerned about the global economic outlook when Donald Trump dealt a blow to the current global ‘free trade architecture’ by signaling a 25% tariff on imported cars into the United States.”

Domestic gasoline prices today, February 21, 2025

Domestic gasoline retail prices on February 21, 2025 are applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on February 20 by the Ministry of Finance – Ministry of Industry and Trade.

ItemPrice (VND/liter/kg)Difference compared to previous periodE5 RON 92 gasoline20,855+257RON 95 gasoline21,331+257Diesel19,063-10Kerosene19,513+40Mazut17,596-183

Specifically, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by VND257/liter, to VND20,855/liter; RON 95 gasoline increased by VND257/liter, to VND21,331/liter.

However, there were some decreases in oil prices during this management period. Specifically, the price of diesel 0.05S: decreased by VND10/liter, to VND19,063/liter; kerosene increased by VND40/liter, to VND19,513/liter; Mazut 180CST 3.5S decreased by 183 VND/kg, down to 17,596 VND/kg.

In this adjustment period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade – Ministry of Finance did not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and mazut.

Thus, from the beginning of 2025 to now, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 8 adjustment sessions, including 2 decrease sessions, 4 increase sessions and 2 opposite sessions.

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Global commodity markets were quiet on the US President’s Day holiday. In the energy market, attacks on Russian oil pipelines pushed oil prices up slightly yesterday. Meanwhile, metals were mixed due to concerns about new US tax policies and a less optimistic economic outlook in China.

Oil prices fluctuate slightly on supply concerns

Oil prices rose slightly in trading yesterday (February 17) after an attack on a pumping station on an oil pipeline in the Caspian Sea, potentially slowing the flow of oil from Kazakhstan to the world.

The oil market closed early yesterday. As of 2:30 a.m. on February 18, WTI crude oil prices were at $71.38/barrel, up 0.9%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices rose 0.6% to $75.22/barrel.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said there had been a drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya pipeline pumping station in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, reducing oil flows from Kazakhstan to world markets. While the attack severely affected Russian exports, investors feared that the escalation of the conflict could lead to more attacks, disrupting oil supplies to the world via the Caspian Sea.

The attack came as the US and Russia were pushing for a meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. If the war ended, sanctions on Russia would be lifted, and Brent crude could fall by $5-$10 a barrel.

In fact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Russian oil exporters had found new ways to circumvent US and EU sanctions and continue shipping oil abroad. Not only that, the IEA also estimated that Russia’s oil production in January was 100,000 barrels per day higher, reaching a total of 9.2 million barrels per day. The IEA has had to adjust its estimate of Russia’s oil production several times. This unofficial supply has helped stabilize oil prices in recent times.

Another piece of information that has dampened oil’s gains is that the USD index is hovering near a two-month low, as US retail sales in January fell the most in nearly two years, down 0.9%. In December 2024, retail sales increased 0.7%. Core retail sales in January fell 0.8%.

Limiting oil’s gains is the prospect of a possible global trade war after Trump ordered trade and economic officials last week to study reciprocal tariffs for countries that impose tariffs on US goods.

In addition, information from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, said that the group will continue to increase monthly oil supplies, expected to start in April. This will make the oversupply situation in the market more serious.

Metal market moves differently

On the first trading day of the week, the market witnessed a divergence in the metal group. The main reason came from concerns about new US tax policies and the less optimistic economic outlook in China.

In the trading session on February 17, the price of silver closed early at $32.88/ounce, up 0.06%, up 9% compared to the same time in January. Meanwhile, the price of platinum was at $1,007/ounce, down about 1.17%.

Concerns about global trade uncertainty continue to support silver prices to maintain their upward momentum. Last week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imported cars starting April 2. Last year, the US imported $471 billion worth of cars, with Mexico accounting for the majority at $49 billion. Currently, Mexico, Canada and South Korea are exempt from tariffs on the condition that they meet the rules of origin of goods in free trade agreements signed with the US.

In addition, since the end of November, silver inventories at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have increased by 22%, reflecting the demand for silver in the US amid rising tensions. However, the price of the precious metal is also facing pressure from the forecast that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will not cut interest rates in March. This is due to the stable labor market and high inflation. High interest rates have pushed up US bond yields, attracting capital flows to the USD, thereby reducing the attractiveness of precious metals.

On the base metals side, COMEX copper closed early down about 1.6% to $10,119/ton. Meanwhile, iron ore prices also closed slightly down 0.31% to $106.46/ton.

The latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that Chinese banks disbursed 5.13 trillion yuan (about $706.40 billion) in new loans in January 2025, up four times from the previous month and far exceeding the forecast of 4.5 trillion yuan. However, the total outstanding loan balance in 2024 will only reach 18.09 trillion yuan, down sharply from 22.75 trillion yuan in 2023. This figure reflects the cautious sentiment of both businesses and consumers amid economic uncertainty.

In addition, as the February LME copper contract expires this week, copper prices have risen sharply over the weekend due to the closing or rolling of positions to the next month. However, after the process is completed, buying power has weakened and selling pressure has increased, so the general selling sentiment has put pressure on the March COMEX copper price.

For iron ore, trading prices have decreased after major export ports in Australia resumed operations following Tropical Storm Zelia, helping to dispel supply concerns. In addition, China’s decision to impose a 15% tariff on coal imports from the US has pushed up steel production costs, which could lead to mills cutting production and reducing demand for iron ore.

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The greenback fell to its lowest level in more than a week on Wednesday as investor worries about the global trade war eased, while the Japanese yen gained on strong wage data.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, fell 0.435% to 107.58, having earlier hit its lowest since January 27 at 107.29.

As US President Donald Trump prepares to impose 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the dollar jumped as much as 1.3% to 109.88 on Monday. The dollar has since fallen about 2% after both Mexico and Canada won a one-month reprieve by beefing up border security, even as the United States raised tariffs on China.

“In particular, markets were relieved that China did not retaliate too aggressively, suggesting that China is willing to absorb higher US tariffs for now,” said Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive.

The euro rose 0.24% to $1.041 after falling as much as 2.3% on Monday on concerns about the global impact of tariffs and the possibility of an extension of duties on the European Union.

The dollar was the biggest loser on Wednesday against the yen, boosted by strong Japanese wage data and comments from a Bank of Japan official hinting at further rate hikes.

The US currency fell 1.19% to 152.525, its lowest since December.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said: “The dollar’s decline this morning (Wednesday) appears to be an extension of recent trends, as markets continue to price in tariff risks from the FX market.”

The dollar extended losses against the yen after data showed US services sector activity unexpectedly slowed in January as demand weakened.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.8 last month from 54.0 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI rising to 54.3.

Data showed Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 0.6% year-on-year in December, helped by a rise in winter bonuses. That has traders increasingly betting on the BOJ raising interest rates further this year, with just over 30 basis points on the table by year-end.

Sterling rose 0.2% after hitting a one-month high of $1.255.

Trump’s threat of new 10% tariffs on China sent the yuan slightly lower on Monday as markets returned from an extended Lunar New Year holiday.

The yuan fell 0.47% in onshore trading. The currency’s gains were capped by the People’s Bank of China setting a stronger-than-expected midpoint rate, around which the currency is allowed to trade within a 2% band.

Investors have been watching the exchange rate adjustment for clues on whether Beijing will allow the yuan to weaken to cushion the impact of trade measures.

On Tuesday, China imposed its own tariffs on imports from the United States in a swift response, and on the same day, Trump said he was in no rush to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to ease the situation.

USD exchange rate today 06/02/2025: Falling to 1-week low

The USD has fallen to its lowest level in more than a week as investors’ worries about the trade war subside.

At the time of the survey at 5:00 a.m. on February 6, the central exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam was currently 24,395 VND/USD, up 35 VND compared to yesterday’s trading session.

Specifically, at Vietcombank, the USD exchange rate is 24,950 – 25,340 VND/USD, down 20 VND for buying and up 200 VND for selling compared to yesterday’s trading session. TPB Bank is buying USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 24,390 VND

TPB Bank is buying USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 24,430 VND

VietinBank is buying USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,190 VND

VietinBank is buying USD transfers at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,549 VND

TPB Bank is selling USD cash at the lowest price: 1 USD = 24,870 VND

HSBC Bank is selling USD transfers at the lowest price: 1 USD = 25,296 VND

Saigonbank is selling USD cash at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,614 VND

VIB Bank is selling USD transfers at the highest price: 1 USD = 25,525 VND

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Name the 3 main reasons

According to the latest data released by the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2024 increased by 0.29% compared to the previous month. Compared to the same period last year, the CPI increased by 2.94%. On average, the CPI in 2024 increased by 3.63% compared to 2023. Thus, this is the 10th consecutive year that Vietnam has succeeded in controlling average inflation at below 4%.

In the period 2015-2024, on average, inflation was only 2.8%/year, much lower than the average of 10.2%/year in the previous 10 years (2005-2014). According to Dr. Nguyen Duc Do – Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance), low inflation in the past 10 years is due to 3 main reasons.

First, the growth rate of money supply in the period 2014-2023 (1-year lag) was only 13.8%, much lower than the average of 27.1% in the period 2004-2013.

Second, interest rates in the period 2014-2024 were always maintained in positive real terms, averaging 3.7%/year for 12-month term deposits. Meanwhile, the average real interest rate in the period 2004-2014 was 0%/year.

Third, the USD/VND exchange rate in the period 2014-2024 was also maintained more stable than in the period 2004-2014. If the depreciation rate of VND against USD in the period 2004-2014 was at an average of 2.9%/year, then in the period 2014-2024 it decreased to 1.6%/year.

Thus, low money supply growth, positive real interest rates and stable exchange rates are the fundamental factors explaining why inflation in Vietnam has been maintained at a low level over the past 10 years.

In fact, inflation in the period 2015-2024 was basically flat (around an average of 2.8%/year or 0.23%/month), which means it was anchored by stable monetary policy and exchange rates. Inflation fluctuations (higher or lower than average) were mainly due to fluctuations in oil prices, raw material prices as well as prices of state-controlled health and education services.

3 inflation scenarios in 2025

In 2024, money supply is controlled at 9.42%, much lower than the average of the 2014-2023 period. This is a factor that helps control inflation in 2025. However, in 2024, real interest rates, although still positive, are lower than the average of the 2014-2024 period, and the USD appreciation rate is also higher than the average of the 2014-2024 period. These are factors that can put pressure on prices in the coming time.

In addition to the above monetary and exchange rate factors, inflation in 2025 also depends on other factors such as world economic growth and oil prices, input material prices. According to forecasts from international organizations, the world economy in 2025 will still grow steadily at 3.2%, equivalent to 2024, while oil prices and prices of basic input goods, on average, tend to decrease slightly. However, exchange rates and interest rates will be uncertain factors and will affect prices in Vietnam.

In the above context, Dr. Nguyen Duc Do has presented 3 inflation scenarios for 2025. Accordingly, in the baseline scenario, the USD/VND exchange rate is stable and interest rates only increase slightly due to increased credit demand, CPI is forecast to increase by an average of 0.23%/month and average inflation for the whole year of 2025 will be around 3.0%.

In the high scenario, the exchange rate pressure is high due to the strong appreciation of the USD in the world market, while the State Bank increases interest rates to stabilize the exchange rate and control inflation, the CPI may increase by 0.28%/month and the average inflation will be around 3.3%.

In the low scenario, the world economy and Vietnam grow weakly, oil prices decrease significantly, while the USD price and interest rates are stable or decrease slightly, the CPI may only increase by 0.18%/month and the average inflation will be around 2.7%.

According to Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, the above forecasts do not take into account the case where the Government increases the prices of medical and educational services according to the roadmap, as well as the possibility that the world economy falls into recession due to interest rates in developed countries being maintained at high levels for a long time. If the Government adjusts service prices in the second half of 2025, the average inflation may be at 3.5% in the high scenario.

In the low-case scenario, if the global economy falls into recession in 2025 and oil prices fall sharply, average inflation could fall to 2.5% or even lower.

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According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Vietnam’s rice prices of 5% broken rice from Vietnam has dropped from $624 per ton at the end of 2024 to $434 per ton – the lowest level since 2021. This price makes Vietnam the country with the cheapest rice price among the world’s top four rice exporters, including Thailand ($479 per ton), India ($440 per ton) and Pakistan ($448 per ton).

Vietnam’s rice prices reduction not only affects the export market but also has a strong impact on domestic rice prices. In the Mekong Delta, the price of regular rice at the field decreased by nearly 300 VND/kg compared to the end of December 2024, while the price at the warehouse decreased by more than 400 VND/kg. Currently, the average price of rice fluctuates from 6,400-7,400 VND/kg depending on the type.

Reasons for the sharp decrease in rice prices high global supply

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in 2025 is expected to reach a record 530 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to 2024. India has lifted the ban on non-Basmati white rice exports, and is expected to export up to 22 million tons of rice, an increase of 5 million tons compared to the previous year. This has pushed global rice prices down.

Cautious import policy: Major importing countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia have stockpiled enough rice for short-term needs, leading to a slowdown in new orders. In addition, the Philippines is negotiating to increase imports of cheap rice from India, reducing demand for rice from Vietnam.

Changes in strategies of exporting countries: In addition to India, many countries such as Egypt, Guyana, and Venezuela have also increased production, creating strong competitive pressure in the international market. This has forced rice exporting countries such as Vietnam to lower prices to maintain market share.

Impact on Vietnamese farmers and businesses

Rice farmers in the western provinces, such as Can Tho, are facing the risk of losses as input costs increase but selling prices decrease. Mr. Hoang, a farmer in the area, shared: “Traders are no longer interested in depositing to buy rice in advance like last year. This makes us very worried about the winter-spring crop.”

On the business side, rice export contracts in the first and second quarters of 2025 are being delayed due to price fluctuations. A leader in An Giang said: “We have to wait for the market to stabilize to avoid the risk of purchasing rice at high prices but exporting at low prices.”

Rice market forecast in 2025

With a strong increase in supply from India and other countries, Vietnamese rice prices, especially 5% broken rice, are expected to continue to be under pressure in the coming time. The Vietnam Food Association believes that when the winter-spring crop enters its main season, domestic rice prices may decrease further. This will not only affect the low-grade rice segment but also lead to a decline in the value of high-quality rice.

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In Hanoi, Phu Quy Precious Metals Group (silver prices 08/01/2025) is listing silver at VND 1,118,000/tael for buying and VND 1,153,000/tael for selling. Other traders in Hanoi have reported even higher prices, with buying and selling rates of VND 941,000 and VND 982,000 per tael, respectively. Ho Chi Minh City is also experiencing a silver price surge, with current rates at VND 943,000 and VND 984,000 per tael. Globally, silver prices have climbed to US$767,000 and US$772,000 per ounce for buying and selling, respectively.

Specifically, the latest information on silver prices today in the two largest markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Silver Prices 08/01/2025

Cập nhật bảng giá bạc mới nhất tại Tập đoàn Vàng bạc Đá quý Phú Quý ngày 8/1/2025:

Cập nhật mới nhất về giá bạc thế giới:

Precious metals ended the week on a bullish note, with silver leading the charge. The precious metal climbed 1.72% to $30.58 per ounce, extending gains from the previous sessions.
The precious metals sector received a boost from a weakening US dollar in the afternoon session. The Dollar Index retreated 0.64% to 108.26 after the Washington Post reported that advisers to President-elect Trump were considering a plan to impose tariffs on all countries but only on sectors critical to US national security or economy. This eased concerns about a broad-based tariff hike as previously stated and reduced disruptions to global trade flows.
However, silver prices soon retraced their gains after President-elect Trump denied reports of a less aggressive tariff policy than previously stated, causing the US dollar to regain strength.

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Domestic rice prices today saw a slight decrease in some varieties.

According to the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of An Giang province, the purchasing price of Dai Thom 8 and OM18 fresh rice decreased by an additional VND 200/kg compared to the previous day, reaching VND 7,800 – 8,000/kg. In addition, OM 5451 rice also decreased by VND 200/kg to VND 7,600 – 7,800/kg, while IR 50404 rice decreased by VND 100/kg, reaching only VND 7,200 – 7,300/kg. However, rice prices in An Giang market did not record any new changes. Currently, regular white rice is listed at VND 16,000 – 17,000/kg, and various types of fragrant rice are priced between VND 18,000 – 22,000/kg.

In the Mekong Delta, the price of IR 504 paddy remains stable at VND 7,500 – 7,600 per kilogram. Meanwhile, IR 504 finished rice has decreased by VND 200 – 300 per kilogram, reaching VND 9,800 – 10,100 per kilogram.

For by-products, the price of fragrant broken rice in local areas has decreased by VND 200 per kilogram compared to the previous day, trading at VND 7,200 – 7,400 per kilogram, while the price of dried bran remains stable at VND 5,950 – 6,050 per kilogram.

Vietnam’s Rice Export Prices Plunge

Vietnam’s rice export prices have continued to decline, according to the latest update from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Specifically, the price of 5% broken rice has dropped by US$6 per ton, reaching a new low of US$467 per ton since April 2023. Additionally, prices for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice have decreased by US$1 and US$5 per ton, respectively, to US$437 and US$327 per ton.

Similarly, export prices in other producing countries in the region have also seen a decline. Pakistan’s 5% broken rice has dropped by US$1 per ton to US$449 per ton. In India, today’s price for 5% broken rice has decreased by US$4 per ton to US$447 per ton, while parboiled rice has also declined by US$4 per ton to US$439 per ton. Meanwhile, Thailand’s 5% broken rice is currently quoted at US$494 per ton, down US$4 per ton from the previous trading day. However, this remains the highest price in the Asian region, exceeding Vietnam’s similar product by US$27 per ton and Pakistan’s by US$45 per ton.

Pressure on farmers and businesses

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Company, the decrease in rice prices is due to the lack of buying signals from major markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and China, leading to a shortage of buyers. This forces sellers to lower prices to stimulate demand, creating a vicious cycle that further drives down prices. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of VFA, noted that global rice demand in 2025 is still high, especially in the Philippines, but there is a need for financial support policies for businesses to purchase and store rice. At the same time, it is necessary to improve quality and build brands to reduce dependence on a few markets.

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